NFL two-point conversion: betting on the try
After a touchdown a team can kick for one point or run a play from the 2-yard line for two. The prop asks whether any two-point try succeeds or is attempted. Close games make it more likely.
Reviewed Oct 15, 2026
Answer first
90s- 01The try starts at the 2-yard line.
- 02About half of tries succeed.
- 03Late, close games bring more tries.
Key numbers
Two-point tries at a glance
In short
Key takeaways
- Read whether the prop needs a success or an attempt.
- Aggressive coaches try more.
- Close games raise the chance.
- Defensive returns can count.
Progress
How the try works
- 1
Touchdown
Six points
- 2
Choice
Kick or go for two
- 3
One play
From the 2
- 4
Result
Two points or none
A kick is taken from the 15-yard line.
Two-point markets
| Market | You bet on | Watch for |
|---|---|---|
| Successful 2-pt try | Yes or No | Most common |
| 2-pt attempt | Yes or No | Any try |
| Team 2-pt try | One team | Coach style |
| Player 2-pt | Scores on a try | Rare |
Names vary by book.
When coaches go for two
Coaches go for two when the score makes two points worth more than one, for example to get within a field goal. This happens most often in the fourth quarter.
Some coaches also go for two early as a habit. Check recent team data before you bet.
Point after choices
| Choice | Spot | Rough success |
|---|---|---|
| Kick | 15-yard line | About 94% |
| Two-point try | 2-yard line | About 50% |
Rough league rates; teams vary.
Defensive two points
If the defense takes the ball back to the other end zone during a try, it scores two points. Many books count this for the Yes side, so read the rules.
A safety on a try is very rare. It is worth one point.
You bet $10 on Yes, successful two-point conversion, at +140. Late in the game a team trails by 8 and scores.
Sequence
Betting the prop
Step 01
Read the wording
Success or attempt.
Step 02
Check the spread
Close games help.
Step 03
Check the coaches
Aggressive or not.
Step 04
Check the weather
Wind hurts kicks.
Step 05
Compare prices
Several books.
Weather and kickers
Strong wind or a struggling kicker can lead coaches to go for two more often.
A missed extra point early can change the math for the rest of the game.
Check injury reports for kickers before the game.
Floor rules
Try terms
Know before you sit
- Try
- The single play after a touchdown.
- PAT
- A point after touchdown, the kick.
- Two-point conversion
- A run or pass from the 2 for two points.
- Defensive conversion
- Two points for a defense that returns a try.
Score charts
Many coaches use a chart that says when to go for two based on the score. Trailing by 8 or by 2 late often leads to a try.
Some coaches go for two more often than the chart, especially teams with strong short-yardage offenses.
Analytics-minded staffs have pushed attempts up in recent seasons.
Common mistakes
- Missing the wording
- Attempt is not success.
- Ignoring the spread
- Blowouts mean fewer tries.
- Old coach data
- Staffs change.
- Assuming no overtime
- Usually counts.
Spread and total
A close spread means the score is more likely to stay tight late. That raises the chance of a two-point try.
A high total means more touchdowns, which gives more chances to go for two.
Blowouts lower the chance, since coaches just kick to avoid risk.
Reading the prop line
The Yes side is often priced as an underdog, since many games have no successful two-point try at all. Prices around +130 to +200 are common, but they move with the spread and total.
A prop that only needs an attempt wins more often than one that needs a success, so it is priced lower. Read the exact wording on your bet slip before you confirm it.
Late news on kicker injuries or bad weather can move this line in the hours before kick-off.
Keep reading
Related pages
Go play
Where to play in Las Vegas
Tap a resort — each row opens that casino’s White Gambling page (hours, game mix, floor facts). Venues with this game in official counts, sorted high to low.
Open a casino page
Real listings · not adsAfter the 90 seconds
Questions before and after you play
A 90-second guide cannot cover every table moment. Tap a group, then a question — answers are short paragraphs, not one-liners.
01Basics
What is a two-point conversion?
A single play from the 2-yard line after a touchdown that scores two points if it reaches the end zone.
How often does it succeed?
Roughly half the time across the league, with team differences. Rules differ between licensed sportsbooks, so read the house rules.
What does the Yes side need?
Usually one successful try by either team. Some props only need an attempt. Rules differ between licensed sportsbooks, so read the house rules.
02Rules
Does overtime count?
At most books yes. Read the house rules. Rules differ between licensed sportsbooks, so read the house rules.
Do defensive returns count?
Many books count a defensive two-point score for Yes. Rules differ between licensed sportsbooks, so read the house rules.
What if a penalty moves the ball?
The try still counts if the team scores two points. Rules differ between licensed sportsbooks, so read the house rules.
03Strategy
What makes Yes more likely?
A close spread, high scoring and coaches who often go for two. Rules differ between licensed sportsbooks, so read the house rules.
Is the Yes side usually plus money?
Often yes, since many games have no successful try. Rules differ between licensed sportsbooks, so read the house rules.
Where can I get help?
If betting stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER for free, private help any time of day.
Sources
- NFL — Official rules Not from a registry (Reference source, not an official registry) · accessed Oct 15, 2026Scoring and try rules
- Pro Football Reference — NFL stats Not from a registry (Reference source, not an official registry) · accessed Oct 15, 2026Two-point conversion statistics
- Wizard of Odds — Sports betting Not from a registry (Reference source, not an official registry)The gaming industry’s standard reference for casino-game math, by actuary Michael Shackleford. Not an official registry; our calculators compute these numbers independently. · accessed Oct 15, 2026Sports betting math
- National Council on Problem Gambling — Help and resources Not from a registry (Reference source, not an official registry) · accessed Oct 15, 2026Free, confidential help: call or text 1-800-GAMBLER