NFL kicking points: betting on the kicker

• Missed kicks add nothing.
• Two-point tries are not kicking points.
• Weather can cut long tries.
• The kicker must play for action.

Official NFL stats settle the bet.

Books start with the team total. A team expected to score 27 points will likely give its kicker several tries.

How the team scores matters. Teams that stall in the red zone kick more field goals, which add 3 points each.

Teams that score many touchdowns give their kicker mostly extra points. Those are worth only 1 each, so the total grows slowly.

Wind and cold shorten a kicker’s range. A coach may go for it on fourth down instead of trying a 52-yard kick into the wind.

Domes help kickers. Indoor games remove wind and rain, so long tries are more common and more accurate.

Some coaches also go for two after touchdowns more often, which costs the kicker an extra point each time.

1. 1

   Step 01

   Check team total

   Expected scoring.

2. 2

   Step 02

   Look at red zone rate

   Touchdowns or kicks.

3. 3

   Step 03

   Read the weather

   Wind and cold.

4. 4

   Step 04

   Know the coach

   Fourth down and two-point habits.

5. 5

   Step 05

   Compare lines

   Half a point matters.

The bet is usually void if the kicker does not play. If he is hurt during the game, the bet usually stands.

Overtime counts at most books. A missed kick or blocked kick adds nothing.

Some books also sell field goals made props, which count only field goals and ignore extra points.

A kicker has a points line of 7.5 at -115 over. His team total is 24.5, the game is in a dome, and his team often stalls inside the 20.

His team scores two touchdowns and kicks both extra points. It also kicks field goals of 34 and 47 yards, and misses from 55.

He finishes with 2 extra points and 2 field goals, or 8 points, so the over wins. A $11.50 bet returns $21.50. If one drive had ended in a touchdown instead of a field goal, he would have had 6 points, and the under would have won. That is why red zone stalls help the over.

Ignoring weather

Wind cuts range.

Forgetting two-point tries

Fewer extra points.

Using only team total

How they score matters.

Skipping line shopping

Lines vary.

Playoff games are often played outdoors in January, when cold and wind cut range. Lines may drop by a point in bad weather.

Close playoff games also bring more late field goal tries, since coaches play for points when the margin is small. That can help the over in tight matchups.

• NFL field goals made →Count successful field goals without adding extra points.
• NFL key numbers →Why 3 and 7 matter.
• Team totals →Team scoring lines.
• Player props →How props work.
• Over/under betting →Totals basics.

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