NHL goalie saves props: over or under the saves line

• Saves equal shots on goal minus goals.
• Busy goalies on weak teams make more saves.
• Shootout saves do not count.
• The goalie must start for action.

Official NHL stats settle the bet.

Books project shots against first, then apply a save rate. A goalie facing 31 shots with a .905 save rate projects to about 28 saves.

The opponent’s shot volume matters most. Teams that shoot a lot push saves lines up, while slow, defensive teams push them down.

His own team matters too. A goalie behind a weak defense faces more shots, so his saves line is often higher even if he lets in more goals.

If a goalie lets in four or five goals early, the coach may pull him. His saves stop there, so the over almost always loses.

Trailing teams pull their goalie for an extra skater late in games. That happens after his saves are mostly counted, so it matters less.

Score effects help the over. A team that leads by two often sits back, and the trailing side outshoots it in the third period.

1. 1

   Step 01

   Confirm the starter

   Goalies change late.

2. 2

   Step 02

   Check opponent shots

   Shots per game.

3. 3

   Step 03

   Review his defense

   Shots allowed.

4. 4

   Step 04

   Think score effects

   Who will chase?

5. 5

   Step 05

   Compare prices

   Lines vary by book.

Most books need the goalie to start for action. If a different goalie starts, the bet is usually void.

Overtime saves usually count. Shootout attempts are not shots on goal in official stats, so shootout saves do not count.

If the goalie is pulled or hurt after starting, the bet stands on the saves he made. Settlement uses official NHL statistics.

A goalie on an underdog faces a team that averages 34 shots per game. His saves line is 29.5 at -115 over, and he stops about 90.5% of shots.

The opponent outshoots his team 37 to 24, and he allows three goals. That is 34 saves, so the over wins. A $11.50 bet returns $21.50.

If he had allowed five goals on 22 shots in two periods and been pulled, he would finish with 17 saves, and the under would win. Backup goalies starting on the second night of a back-to-back often face more shots, so check the confirmed starter. Teams usually confirm the goalie at the morning skate or shortly before puck drop.

Betting before starters are confirmed

Backups start often.

Ignoring opponent volume

Shots drive saves.

Counting shootout saves

They do not count.

Forgetting blowout risk

Pulled goalies stop.

• NHL shots on goal →Skater shot lines.
• NHL puck line →Hockey spreads.
• Anytime goalscorer →Goal bets.
• Player props →How props work.

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