MoneyRules

NHL shots on goal props: counting pucks on net

A shots on goal prop asks whether a skater gets more or fewer shots on goal than a line, usually 1.5, 2.5 or 3.5. Only shots that reach the goalie or go in count.

Reviewed Oct 15, 2026

Answer first

90s

01Only shots on net count, not misses or blocks.
02Goals count as shots on goal.
03Ice time and power play role matter most.

Key numbers

SOG props at a glance

2.5Common lineTop forward

-130Typical overVolume shooter

3Periods20 minutes each

30Team shotsRough average

In short

Key takeaways

Missed and blocked shots do not count.
A goal is always a shot on goal.
Power play time adds shots.
Overtime usually counts, shootouts do not.

Progress

What counts as a shot on goal

1
Saved shot
Counts
2
Goal
Counts
3
Missed net
Does not count
4
Blocked shot
Does not count
5
Hit post
Does not count

Shots that hit the post or crossbar and stay out are not shots on goal.

Example SOG lines

Player type	Line	Over	Under
Star winger	3.5	+110	-135
Top-line center	2.5	-120	-105
Power play defenseman	2.5	+105	-130
Third-line forward	1.5	+100	-125
Defensive defenseman	0.5	-160	+130

Made-up prices for illustration only.

What drives shots

Ice time is the base. A top forward may play 20 minutes a night, while a fourth-liner plays 10. More minutes means more chances to shoot.

Power play time is a big boost. Teams on the man advantage shoot more, and players on the first power play unit get most of those chances.

Some players simply shoot more. Shooting volume is a steadier skill than scoring, so shots props are often easier to project than goal props.

Shots per game and chance of over 2.5

Average shots	Chance 3+	Fair odds
2.0	32%	+209
2.5	46%	+119
3.0	58%	-136
3.5	68%	-212
4.0	76%	-320

Our own Poisson estimates, before any margin.

Score effects and opponents

Teams that trail push forward and outshoot their opponents, often by a wide margin in the third period. Players on losing teams can rack up late shots.

Opponents matter. Some teams allow many shots but keep them to the outside, while others block a lot, which cuts shots on goal.

Scorekeeping varies a little by arena. Some rinks are known to count shots more generously, which slightly lifts totals in those buildings.

Sequence

Checking a shots prop

Step 01
Check line combos
Top six or not.
Step 02
Check power play unit
First unit shoots more.
Step 03
Review opponent
Shots allowed and blocks.
Step 04
Look at the spread
Trailing teams shoot.
Step 05
Compare prices
Lines vary by book.

Rules and settlement

Most books need the player to take at least one shift for the bet to have action. If he leaves hurt after that, the bet stands.

Overtime shots normally count. Shootout attempts do not count as shots on goal in official stats, so they do not help an over.

Settlement uses official NHL statistics at the time of grading. Later corrections are usually ignored.

Floor rules

SOG terms

Know before you sit

SOG: Shot on goal.
TOI: Time on ice.
PP1: First power play unit.
Shot attempt: Any shot, on net or not.

A worked example

A winger averages 3.1 shots per game and has a line of 2.5 shots at -125 over. That price implies a 55.6% chance of 3 or more.

Using a simple Poisson model with an average of 3.1, the chance of 3 or more shots is about 60%. He also plays on the first power play unit.

A $10 over bet at -125 returns $18.00 if he gets 3 or more shots on goal. Blocked and missed shots do not help, even if he takes many attempts. Check that he is still on the first unit before the game.

Common mistakes

Counting missed shots: Only shots on net count.
Ignoring power play role: PP1 shoots more.
Forgetting blocks: Some teams block a lot.
Counting shootouts: They do not count.

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After the 90 seconds

Questions before and after you play

A 90-second guide cannot cover every table moment. Tap a group, then a question — answers are short paragraphs, not one-liners.

01Basics

What is a shots on goal prop?

A bet on whether a skater puts more or fewer shots on net than the line the sportsbook sets for that game.

Does a goal count as a shot?

Yes. Every goal is also a shot on goal, so scoring always helps the over on a shots prop.

Do blocked shots count?

No. Blocked shots and shots that miss the net, including posts, do not count as shots on goal.

02Rules

Does overtime count?

At most sportsbooks overtime shots count toward the total, but check each book’s rules for hockey props.

Do shootout attempts count?

No. Shootout attempts are not recorded as shots on goal, so they do not count for these props.

What if the player is scratched?

If he does not play a shift, the bet is usually void and the stake is returned. Rules differ between licensed sportsbooks, so read the house rules.

03Strategy

Why are shots easier to project than goals?

Shooting volume is steadier from game to game than goals, which depend heavily on luck and goaltending.

Does the score affect shots?

Yes. Trailing teams push forward and often outshoot the leading team, especially in the third period.

Where can I get help?

If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER for free, private help any time of day.

Sources

NHL — Official rules Not from a registry (Reference source, not an official registry) · accessed Oct 15, 2026Game rules and stat definitions
Hockey Reference — NHL stats Not from a registry (Reference source, not an official registry) · accessed Oct 15, 2026League and player statistics
Wizard of Odds — Sports betting Not from a registry (Reference source, not an official registry) · accessed Oct 15, 2026Sports betting math
National Council on Problem Gambling — Help and resources Not from a registry (Reference source, not an official registry) · accessed Oct 15, 2026Free, confidential help: call or text 1-800-GAMBLER