NFL interception props: will the quarterback throw a pick?
An interception prop asks whether a quarterback throws more or fewer interceptions than a line, usually 0.5. Any pass he throws that the defense catches counts, including on fourth down.
Reviewed Oct 15, 2026
Answer first
90s- 01Usual line is 0.5 interceptions.
- 02Under is often the favorite.
- 03Trailing teams throw more risky passes.
Key numbers
Interception props at a glance
In short
Key takeaways
- Only passes he throws count.
- Two-point tries do not count.
- Game script changes risk.
- He must take a snap for action.
Progress
How an interception prop settles
- 1
Kickoff
Bet has action
- 2
Pass thrown
Each attempt
- 3
Defender catches
One pick
- 4
Final whistle
Stats checked
- 5
Grade
Over or under
Official NFL stats settle the bet.
Example interception prices
| Quarterback type | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Careful veteran | 0.5 | +150 | -185 |
| Average starter | 0.5 | +110 | -140 |
| Gunslinger | 0.5 | -120 | -105 |
| Rookie on the road | 0.5 | -130 | +105 |
| Backup starter | 0.5 | -140 | +110 |
Made-up prices for illustration.
What counts as an interception
Any forward pass caught by a defender before it touches the ground counts. It does not matter if the defender later fumbles it back.
Interceptions on two-point tries do not count in passing stats, and plays wiped out by a penalty do not count either.
Hail Mary throws at the end of a half count like any other pass, which can turn a winning under into a loss at the last second.
Pick rate and pass volume
| Pick rate | 30 passes | 40 passes |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5% | 36% chance | 45% chance |
| 2.3% | 50% chance | 61% chance |
| 3.0% | 60% chance | 70% chance |
Chance of at least one pick; our own rough sums.
What moves the line
Volume matters. A quarterback who trails throws more passes, often deep and into tight coverage, which raises the chance of a pick.
The defense matters. Some defenses force many turnovers with pressure and ball-hawking safeties, while others rarely make picks.
Weather matters. Strong wind and rain make throws harder to control, which can add risk on longer passes.
Sequence
Checking an interception prop
Step 01
Check pick rate
Per pass, not per game.
Step 02
Look at the spread
Likely trailing?
Step 03
Study the defense
Takeaway rate.
Step 04
Check the weather
Wind and rain.
Step 05
Compare prices
Juice varies.
Rules and settlement
The bet is usually void if the named quarterback does not take a snap. Once he plays, the bet stands even if he is benched.
Overtime counts at most books. A pick-six counts as one interception like any other.
Settlement uses the official stats at the end of the game. Later changes are usually not used.
Floor rules
Interception terms
Know before you sit
- Interception
- Pass caught by defense.
- Pick-six
- Pick returned for a touchdown.
- Hail Mary
- Long end-of-half throw.
- Pick rate
- Picks per pass.
A worked example
A quarterback has an interception line of 0.5 with the under at -150. He throws a pick on about 2% of passes and his team is a 3-point favorite.
His team falls behind 21-7 and he throws 44 passes. Late in the fourth quarter, a deep pass is picked off. The over wins at +120, paying $22 on a $10 bet.
Had his team led all day, he might have thrown 26 passes, and the chance of at least one pick would have been closer to 40%. Game script changed the risk a lot. Check the spread and total before you bet.
Common mistakes
- Judging by last week
- Picks are rare and random.
- Ignoring game script
- Trailing adds throws.
- Forgetting Hail Marys
- They count.
- Overpaying the under
- -200 needs 67% wins.
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01Basics
What is an interception prop?
A bet on whether the quarterback throws more or fewer interceptions than the line, usually 0.5.
Does a pick-six count?
Yes. It counts as one interception, the same as any other. Rules differ between licensed sportsbooks, so read the house rules.
Do two-point tries count?
No. Two-point attempts are not part of passing stats. Rules differ between licensed sportsbooks, so read the house rules.
02Rules
What if he does not play?
The bet is usually void if he never takes a snap. Rules differ between licensed sportsbooks, so read the house rules.
Does overtime count?
At most licensed sportsbooks overtime stats count. Check the house rules. Rules differ between licensed sportsbooks, so read the house rules.
What if a penalty wipes out the pick?
Then it does not count, since the play never happened in the stats. Rules differ between licensed sportsbooks, so read the house rules.
03Strategy
Is the under a good default?
Not always. It is often priced heavily, so you need it to win often. Rules differ between licensed sportsbooks, so read the house rules.
Who throws the most picks?
Quarterbacks who throw often, take deep shots and trail late. Rules differ between licensed sportsbooks, so read the house rules.
Where can I get help?
If betting stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER for free, private help any time of day.
Sources
- NFL — Official rules Not from a registry (Reference source, not an official registry) · accessed Oct 15, 2026Game rules and stat definitions
- Pro Football Reference — NFL stats Not from a registry (Reference source, not an official registry) · accessed Oct 15, 2026League and player statistics
- Wizard of Odds — Sports betting Not from a registry (Reference source, not an official registry)The gaming industry’s standard reference for casino-game math, by actuary Michael Shackleford. Not an official registry; our calculators compute these numbers independently. · accessed Oct 15, 2026Sports betting math
- National Council on Problem Gambling — Help and resources Not from a registry (Reference source, not an official registry) · accessed Oct 15, 2026Free, confidential help: call or text 1-800-GAMBLER