Blackjack dealer bust odds by upcard

• With 4, 5 or 6 showing, the dealer busts roughly two hands in five.
• Against 7 through ace, the dealer usually makes a hand, so you need a stronger total.
• Basic strategy stands on 12–16 against weak upcards because the dealer will often bust.
• Hitting soft 17 adds about 0.2% to the house edge and a little to the dealer’s bust rate with an ace.

Glance the faces — compare in one second.

1. 1Six up

   Busts about 42% — stand on stiff hands

   6♥♥6♥

2. 2Five up

   Busts about 42% — double and split freely

   5♠♠5♠

3. 3Seven up

   Busts about 26% — hit stiff hands

   7♦♦7♦

4. 4Ten up

   Busts about 21% — expect a made hand

   K♣♣K♣

5. 5Ace up

   Busts under 18% — insurance is offered

   A♥♥A♥

A dealer with 5 or 6 must draw at least once and usually twice. Any 10-value card leaves 15 or 16, which must hit again. That second hit busts often.

A dealer with 7 or higher has a good chance to land on 17 to 21 with one card, because tens are the most common card in the shoe.

1. 1

   Step 01

   Read the upcard

   Sort it into weak (2–6) or strong (7–ace).

2. 2

   Step 02

   Check your total

   Hard 12–16 is a stiff hand; 17 and up is made.

3. 3

   Step 03

   Weak upcard

   Stand on stiff hands and double or split more often.

4. 4

   Step 04

   Strong upcard

   Hit stiff hands until you reach 17 or bust.

Doubling 11 against a 6 works so well because two things help at once: you have a strong chance to reach 21, and the dealer busts about 42% of the time.

Against a 10, the dealer will make a hand about 79% of the time. That is why you hit 16 against a 10 even though you bust often; standing wins only when the dealer busts.

Splitting 8s against weak upcards turns one poor hand into two hands that often reach 18. Against a 9 or 10 it is a damage-control move, not a winner.

Assuming a ten in the hole

Players often say “assume the dealer has ten”. It is a rough rule, not a fact; a 6 showing becomes 16 only about one time in three.

Standing on 16 against a 7

Against a 7, the dealer makes a hand about 74% of the time. Standing on 16 wins only when the dealer busts, so hitting is better.

Doubling too little against 5 and 6

These upcards bust most often. Basic strategy doubles soft hands like A-4 through A-7 against them, and many players skip that value.

Taking insurance against an ace

The dealer has blackjack under an ace only about 31% of the time in a six-deck game. Insurance pays 2 to 1, which is not enough.

Copying the player next to you

Other players’ choices do not change your odds. Base each hand on your total and the upcard alone.

• Blackjack basic strategy chart →Every hand against every upcard.
• Blackjack soft 17 rule →How H17 changes the game.
• When to double down →Doubling against weak upcards.
• Blackjack insurance →The bet offered against an ace.

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1. Wizard of Odds — Dealer bust probabilities Not from a registry (Reference source, not an official registry)?The gaming industry’s standard reference for casino-game math, by actuary Michael Shackleford. Not an official registry; our calculators compute these numbers independently. · accessed Oct 14, 2026Rules, odds and house edge
2. Nevada Gaming Control Board · accessed Oct 14, 2026Approved games and gaming revenue reports
3. National Council on Problem Gambling — Help and resources Not from a registry (Reference source, not an official registry) · accessed Oct 14, 2026Free, confidential help: call or text 1-800-GAMBLER
4. UNLV Center for Gaming Research Not from a registry (Reference source, not an official registry) · accessed Oct 14, 2026Research library on casino games and gambling