Correct score: betting on the exact final result
A correct score bet picks the exact final score, such as 2-1 or 1-1. Payouts are high because even the most likely score happens only about one time in eight or nine. Book margins are also high in this market.
Reviewed Oct 15, 2026
Answer first
90s- 01You must name the exact score.
- 02The most likely soccer scores are 1-1, 1-0 and 2-1.
- 03Margins are often much higher than on match odds.
Key numbers
Correct score at a glance
In short
Key takeaways
- Even the top score is a long shot.
- Prices hide large margins.
- Poisson math gives fair odds.
- Extra time does not count in standard markets.
Progress
From expected goals to a score price
- 1
Home xG
1.5
- 2
Away xG
1.1
- 3
Chance of 1 home goal
33.5%
- 4
Chance of 1 away goal
36.6%
- 5
1-1
33.5% × 36.6% ≈ 12.3%
Simple Poisson model, teams treated as independent.
Score chances and fair odds (home 1.5 xG, away 1.1 xG)
| Score | Chance | Fair decimal | Fair American |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.3% | 8.2 | +716 |
| 1-0 | 11.1% | 9.0 | +798 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.9 | +988 |
| 2-0 | 8.4% | 12.0 | +1096 |
| 0-0 | 7.4% | 13.5 | +1246 |
| 2-2 | 5.1% | 19.8 | +1876 |
Our own Poisson sums; real books price shorter.
How the bet works
The sportsbook lists every likely score with a price, plus an any other score option for big results. You pick one. If the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time matches, you win at the listed odds.
Scores are always listed home first. A 2-1 bet on the home team needs the home side to win 2-1, while 1-2 is an away win by the same margin. Check the order before you confirm the ticket.
At US books you may find correct score under match props or exact score. The same idea exists for American football and hockey, with winning margin bands instead of exact scores.
Book price vs fair price (example)
| Score | Fair odds | Typical book odds | Hidden margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 8.2 | About 6.5 | About 26% |
| 1-0 | 9.0 | About 7.0 | About 29% |
| 2-1 | 10.9 | About 8.5 | About 28% |
Example book prices; margin as fair odds ÷ book odds − 1.
Working out fair odds
Goals in soccer roughly follow a Poisson pattern. With 1.5 expected home goals, the chance of exactly one home goal is 1.5 × e to the power of −1.5, about 33.5%. For one away goal at 1.1 expected, about 36.6%.
Multiply them for 1-1: about 12.3%, or fair decimal odds of about 8.2. The same method gives 1-0 at about 11.1% and 0-0 at about 7.4%. Draws tend to be slightly more common in real matches than this simple model says.
Books often build in margins of 20% or more across the whole correct score market. That is far higher than the 3% to 6% common on match odds, so correct score is usually one of the costliest markets to bet.
Sequence
Betting correct score
Step 01
Estimate goals
Expected goals for each team.
Step 02
Find likely scores
1-1, 1-0, 2-1 and so on.
Step 03
Work out fair odds
1 ÷ chance.
Step 04
Compare book prices
Look for small gaps.
Step 05
Stake small
Wins are rare.
Rules and options
Standard correct score markets settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If a cup tie goes to extra time, a 1-1 bet wins if it was 1-1 after 90 minutes, even if a goal comes later.
Some books offer half-time correct score or half-time and full-time double results. These pay more again, with even higher margins.
Scorecast bets combine a correct score with a first goalscorer. They pay a lot, but you must get both parts right, and the margins multiply.
Floor rules
Correct score terms
Know before you sit
- Correct score
- Exact final score bet.
- Any other score
- Covers scores not listed.
- Scorecast
- Correct score plus first scorer.
- Poisson
- Model for goal counts.
Common mistakes
- Mixing up the order
- Home score comes first.
- Ignoring margins
- They are very high.
- Counting extra time
- Usually not included.
- Staking big
- Wins are rare.
Keep reading
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01Basics
What is a correct score bet?
A bet on the exact final score of a match, such as 2-1. Rules differ between licensed sportsbooks, so read the house rules.
What is the most common soccer score?
1-1 and 1-0 are usually the most common, each around one match in nine or ten. Rules differ between licensed sportsbooks, so read the house rules.
Is the home score listed first?
Yes. A 2-1 bet means the home team wins 2-1. Rules differ between licensed sportsbooks, so read the house rules.
02Numbers
How are fair odds worked out?
Use expected goals and a Poisson model to find each score’s chance, then take 1 divided by it.
Why are payouts so high?
Each exact score is unlikely, often 12% or less. Rules differ between licensed sportsbooks, so read the house rules.
What margin do books take?
Often 20% or more across the market. Rules differ between licensed sportsbooks, so read the house rules.
03Rules
Does extra time count?
Usually not. Standard markets settle after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Rules differ between licensed sportsbooks, so read the house rules.
What is any other score?
An option that covers results not listed, often big wins. Rules differ between licensed sportsbooks, so read the house rules.
Where can I get help?
If betting stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER for free, private help. Rules differ between licensed sportsbooks, so read the house rules.
Sources
- Wikipedia — Poisson distribution Not from a registry (Reference source, not an official registry) · accessed Oct 15, 2026Modeling goal counts
- Wikipedia — Fixed-odds betting Not from a registry (Reference source, not an official registry) · accessed Oct 15, 2026Decimal, fractional and American odds
- Wizard of Odds — Sports betting Not from a registry (Reference source, not an official registry)The gaming industry’s standard reference for casino-game math, by actuary Michael Shackleford. Not an official registry; our calculators compute these numbers independently. · accessed Oct 15, 2026Sports betting math
- National Council on Problem Gambling — Help and resources Not from a registry (Reference source, not an official registry) · accessed Oct 15, 2026Free, confidential help: call or text 1-800-GAMBLER