Theoretical loss: the number behind your comps
Casinos rate players by theoretical loss, or theo. It is what the house expects to win from your play: average bet, times decisions per hour, times hours, times house edge. Comps are usually a share of that number.
Reviewed Oct 15, 2026
Answer first
90s- 01Theo is based on the house edge, not your actual result.
- 02A typical comp return is 20% to 40% of theo.
- 03Winning or losing does not change your theo.
Key numbers
Theo in one line
In short
Key takeaways
- Theo measures how much you bet, not how much you lost.
- Casinos often use a higher edge than perfect strategy.
- Time played matters as much as bet size.
- Slot theo comes from coin-in times hold.
Progress
From play to comps
- 1
Average bet
Rated by the floor
- 2
Hands per hour
Game speed
- 3
Hours played
Session length
- 4
House edge
Casino figure
- 5
Theo
Expected win
- 6
Comps
A share of theo
Each casino sets its own rates.
Example theo by game
| Game | Bet | Decisions | Edge used | Theo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackjack | $25 | 70 an hour for 4 hours | 2% | $140 |
| Craps | $15 | 30 an hour for 3 hours | 1.5% | $20.25 |
| Baccarat | $50 | 80 an hour for 2 hours | 1.2% | $96 |
| Roulette | $10 | 40 an hour for 2 hours | 5.26% | $42.08 |
Our own sums; casinos set their own pace and edge figures.
Why casinos use theo
A player who wins tonight may lose next week. If comps followed actual results, lucky players would get nothing and unlucky ones would be paid for losing. Theo smooths that out by asking what the casino should win over time from that level of play.
Floor staff record your average bet and time in the game when you hand over a player card. The system multiplies by a set pace and edge. Many casinos rate blackjack at around 1.5% to 2%, above the 0.5% a perfect player faces, because most players make mistakes.
This means a careful player often gets comps based on a bigger edge than they actually face. That gap is one reason the casino rating can be generous for strong basic strategy players.
Slot theo from coin-in
| Coin-in | Hold | Theo | Comp at 25% |
|---|---|---|---|
| $500 | 8% | $40 | $10 |
| $1,000 | 8% | $80 | $20 |
| $2,500 | 10% | $250 | $62.50 |
| $5,000 | 6% | $300 | $75 |
Coin-in counts every credit wagered, including replayed wins.
How slots are rated
Slot rating is simpler. The machine reports every dollar played, called coin-in. Your theo is coin-in times the casino’s hold figure for that game type. Wins you replay count as new coin-in, so a $100 buy-in can produce $1,000 or more in coin-in.
Points programs often turn coin-in into points at a fixed rate, such as 1 point per $5 on reels and 1 per $10 on video poker. Video poker earns less because its edge is lower. The points then convert into free play, meals or rooms.
Sequence
Estimating your own theo
Step 01
Note your average bet
Be honest about size.
Step 02
Count your pace
Hands or rolls per hour.
Step 03
Track your time
Hours with your card in.
Step 04
Use a fair edge
1.5% to 2% for blackjack.
Step 05
Multiply
Then take 20% to 40%.
What changes your rating
Bigger bets and longer sessions raise theo the most. Slower tables lower it, since you play fewer hands. Many casinos also have a minimum time or bet before they rate you at all, so tell the floor when you sit down and when you leave.
Playing to earn comps is costly. A $20 meal is not worth $100 in extra expected losses. Treat comps as a small rebate on play you would make anyway.
Floor rules
Theo terms
Know before you sit
- Theo
- The amount the casino expects to win from your play.
- Coin-in
- Total dollars wagered on a slot.
- Reinvestment
- The share of theo returned as comps.
- Rating
- The floor record of your bet and time.
Common mistakes
- Thinking losses earn comps
- Theo, not loss, drives comps.
- Forgetting the card
- Unrated play earns nothing.
- Overstating your bet
- The floor records what it sees.
- Playing longer for a meal
- The extra theo costs more.
Keep reading
Related pages
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01Basics
What is theoretical loss?
It is what the casino expects to win from your play over time: average bet times decisions times house edge. It is not your actual win or loss.
Do comps depend on whether I win?
Usually not. Comps are based on theo. A winning session and a losing session of the same size earn the same rating.
What share of theo comes back as comps?
Many casinos return about 20% to 40% of theo, though rates differ by casino and player tier.
02Table games
What edge do casinos use for blackjack?
Often around 1.5% to 2%, higher than the 0.5% a perfect basic strategy player faces, to reflect average mistakes.
Does playing faster raise my theo?
Yes. More hands per hour means more total action, so theo rises with the pace. House rules vary, so ask staff if you are unsure.
How is my average bet rated?
The floor supervisor watches your bets and records an average. Changing bets often may lower or raise the recorded figure.
03Slots
How is slot theo worked out?
Coin-in times the hold figure for that machine type. If you play $1,000 through at 8% hold, theo is $80.
Why does video poker earn fewer points?
Its edge is lower, so the casino expects to win less per dollar and pays points more slowly.
Does free play count toward theo?
Policies vary. Some casinos rate free play as coin-in and some do not, so ask the players club.
Sources
- Wikipedia — Comps (casino) Not from a registry (Reference source, not an official registry) · accessed Oct 15, 2026How casinos reward players
- Wizard of Odds — House edge Not from a registry (Reference source, not an official registry)The gaming industry’s standard reference for casino-game math, by actuary Michael Shackleford. Not an official registry; our calculators compute these numbers independently. · accessed Oct 15, 2026House edge of casino games
- UNLV Center for Gaming Research Not from a registry (Reference source, not an official registry) · accessed Oct 15, 2026Research library on casino games and gambling
- National Council on Problem Gambling — Help and resources Not from a registry (Reference source, not an official registry) · accessed Oct 15, 2026Free, confidential help: call or text 1-800-GAMBLER