The true count: making the running count mean something
The true count is the running count divided by the number of decks still to be dealt. It shows how rich the remaining cards are in tens and aces, which a raw running count cannot do in a multi-deck shoe.
Reviewed Oct 15, 2026
Answer first
90s- 01True count = running count ÷ decks remaining.
- 02Each +1 adds about 0.5% to the player edge.
- 03Bets and some plays change with the true count.
Key numbers
True count at a glance
In short
Key takeaways
- The same running count means more late in the shoe.
- Estimate decks to the nearest half deck.
- Most counters start betting more at +1 or +2.
- Counting in your head is legal, but casinos can ask you to stop.
Progress
Converting a count
- 1
Hi-Lo values
2–6 = +1, 7–9 = 0, 10–A = −1
- 2
Running count
+6
- 3
Decks left
3 (from discard tray)
- 4
True count
+6 ÷ 3 = +2
- 5
Action
Raise the bet a step
Hi-Lo count in a 6-deck shoe.
Same running count, different decks left
| Running count | Decks left | True count | Rough player edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| +6 | 6 | +1 | About 0% |
| +6 | 3 | +2 | About +0.5% |
| +6 | 2 | +3 | About +1% |
| +6 | 1 | +6 | About +2.5% |
Starting from about −0.5% for good 6-deck rules; rough rule of 0.5% per true count.
Why you divide by decks
A running count of +6 means six more small cards than big cards have come out. In a single deck that is a big shift. Spread across six fresh decks, it barely changes the mix. Dividing by decks left puts the count on one scale.
Counters estimate decks left by looking at the discard tray, usually to the nearest half deck. With six decks in a shoe and two and a half in the tray, about three and a half remain.
Rounding methods differ. Some players round down or floor the true count, which is a little more cautious with bets. Small errors matter less than staying steady through a long session.
A simple bet ramp ($25 unit, 6 decks)
| True count | Bet | Units |
|---|---|---|
| +1 or less | $25 | 1 |
| +2 | $50 | 2 |
| +3 | $100 | 4 |
| +4 | $150 | 6 |
| +5 or more | $200 | 8 |
Example only; real ramps depend on bankroll and table limits.
What the true count is worth
A common rule is that each point of true count adds about 0.5% to the player’s edge. With good six-deck rules the game starts near −0.5%, so the player reaches about break-even at +1 and gains from +2 upward.
That is why counters spread their bets, betting small at low counts and more at high counts. The edge is thin, so swings are large, and a counter needs a large bankroll to ride them out.
Rules change the base number. A 6 to 5 payout on blackjack costs about 1.4%, which a count rarely makes up for. Dealer hits soft 17 and no surrender also lower the starting edge.
Sequence
Keeping a true count
Step 01
Learn Hi-Lo values
Plus, zero or minus.
Step 02
Keep the running count
Every card seen.
Step 03
Check the tray
Decks dealt so far.
Step 04
Divide
Running count ÷ decks left.
Step 05
Act
Bet and index plays.
Index plays
Some strategy choices change with the count. With Hi-Lo, insurance becomes a good bet at a true count of +3 or higher, because the shoe holds enough tens. Standing on 16 against a dealer 10 becomes right at 0 or higher.
Other common changes include standing on 12 against a dealer 3 at +2 and doubling 10 against a dealer 10 at +4. A short list known as the Illustrious 18 covers the most valuable changes.
Counting with your own memory is legal in the US. Using a device to count is a crime in Nevada and many other states. Casinos may still refuse your action, flat bet you or ask you to leave.
Floor rules
True count terms
Know before you sit
- Running count
- Sum of card values seen.
- True count
- Running count ÷ decks left.
- Bet ramp
- Bet sizes by true count.
- Index play
- A strategy change at a set count.
Common mistakes
- Betting on the running count
- Divide first.
- Bad deck estimates
- Check the tray.
- Spreading too wide
- It draws attention.
- Counting 6 to 5 games
- The payout cost is too high.
Keep reading
Related pages
Go play
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Questions before and after you play
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01Basics
What is the true count?
The running count divided by the number of decks still to be dealt. House rules can vary, so check the table placard or ask the dealer.
Why not just use the running count?
The same count matters less with more decks left, so the true count puts it on one scale.
How do I know how many decks are left?
Look at the discard tray and estimate to the nearest half deck. House rules can vary, so check the table placard or ask the dealer.
02Numbers
What is each true count worth?
Roughly 0.5% of player edge per point with Hi-Lo. House rules can vary, so check the table placard or ask the dealer.
When should I take insurance?
With Hi-Lo, at a true count of +3 or higher. House rules can vary, so check the table placard or ask the dealer.
When does the player get an edge?
Under good six-deck rules, at about +1 to +2. House rules can vary, so check the table placard or ask the dealer.
03Rules
Is counting cards legal?
Counting in your head is legal in the US, but casinos can refuse your play. House rules can vary, so check the table placard or ask the dealer.
Can I use an app?
No. Counting devices are illegal in Nevada and many other states. House rules can vary, so check the table placard or ask the dealer.
Where can I get help?
If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER for free, private help. House rules can vary, so check the table placard or ask the dealer.
Sources
- Wikipedia — Card counting Not from a registry (Reference source, not an official registry) · accessed Oct 15, 2026Running count, true count and penetration
- Wizard of Odds — High-Low count Not from a registry (Reference source, not an official registry)The gaming industry’s standard reference for casino-game math, by actuary Michael Shackleford. Not an official registry; our calculators compute these numbers independently. · accessed Oct 15, 2026Hi-Lo values and index plays
- Nevada Gaming Control Board · accessed Oct 15, 2026Approved games and gaming revenue reports
- National Council on Problem Gambling — Help and resources Not from a registry (Reference source, not an official registry) · accessed Oct 15, 2026Free, confidential help: call or text 1-800-GAMBLER